Use success to keep only superpower in line
By GERALD SEGAL
AMERICANS. Don't you just love to hate them? They preach to you about the virtues of an
open trading system and then they slap a bizarre set of sanctions on trade rivals before
the World Trade Organisation makes its report.
They lecture the world about the virtues of the rule of law, and when their air force
is responsible for the death of 20 tourists in Italy, US military courts set the culprits
free.
But as infuriating as such behaviour undoubtedly is, the rest of the world has no
choice but to get on well with the world's single superpower. The ability to get the US to
behave better, in fact, is in the hands of the country's most frustrated allies.
The root of the problem with the United States is that the world has never seen such a
unipolar moment.
It is only in the past 150 years that great power politics have been played out on a
global stage. Only in the last 100 years has the status of a great power begun to be seen
as requiring some form of global reach.
In those earlier eras, there were a series of roughly equal powers vying constantly for
supremacy and alliance. For a time, a Japan or a Germany dominated a region, but not for
long, and never outside its home base. In the Cold War, we got down to two powers, and by
1991, there was only one. Thus, for the first time since we have had an important degree
of globalisation, there is only one global power.
You don't have to be a great theorist or philosopher to see that we are now struggling
with a major structural change in global order. But in each major category of power, there
are benefits as well as problems in having one dominant power.
In security terms, it sometimes appears as if we have a mad bomber on the loose. When
confronted with terrorism against US interests in Africa, the weapon of choice is a cruise
missile attack on Afghanistan and Sudan.
When Iraq will no longer comply with UN resolutions, you guessed it, the answer is to
send in the missiles and aircraft. What do you do when faced with a stroppy Serbian
leader? Of course, send in the bombers! Resorting to high-tech force makes sense for a
country that fears casualties, dominates the highest end of weapons technology, and yet
feels an obligation to maintain international order.
It is easy to make fun of "cowardly" and simple-minded Americans who trust so
naively in technology. But allies of the US also know that they have to "shout their
objections quietly".
Would Europeans prefer to see Iraq armed with weapons of mass destruction and missiles
capable of wiping out Rome? Would Asians like to see China seizing the South China Sea and
cowing Taiwan? Of course not! Because all other powers are puny and regional, they will,
naturally, lack the ability and the inclination to defend global order.
Only a global power will do that. Non-status quo powers such as China (and perhaps
Russia) might welcome a US less committed to global order, but if all other powers are
truthful, they will accept reluctantly that it is better to have a sheriff with attitude
than no sheriff at all.
In economic terms, as the current WTO dispute over bananas demonstrates, the US seems
to have a default mode of "bully". The dreaded Super-301 trade legislation has
been waved at any number of Asian trade partners.
Americans correctly castigate Europeans for the absurdities of the Common Agricultural
Policy (CAP), but as the Australians so trenchantly point out, US farm subsidies are only
marginally less odious.
The last parts of the previous trade round were only possible because the Japanese and
Singaporeans worked with other Asians and the EU to gang up on the Americans.
But if Europeans and Asians are honest, they will recognise that for all its flaws, the
US is a more open economy. The US has a right to be nasty with Europeans who have violated
flagrantly the spirit, if not the letter, of four WTO rulings on bananas.
The US has risen to the challenge of helping East Asians export their way out of
trouble by allowing its trade deficit to more than double to US$280 billion (S$482
billion). Europeans, to their common disgrace, have continued to run a trade surplus of
US$100 billion.
At least Japan, a country with the deepest recession of any OECD country since the end
of the war, has a good excuse for its US$100 billion or so trade surplus.
Europe's cowardly failure to reform the CAP not only delays membership in the EU for
new European democracies, but makes it harder for all emerging market countries to prosper
through the free market.
In short, it is the US that has ensured that the nastiest dog in the economic crisis
has not barked -- the one with the name "protectionism" on its collar.
Even in terms of ideological and cultural power, the US leads by default. The French
government complains about US cultural dominance, but fought hard to host EuroDisney. The
rivalry between Shanghai and Hongkong for a new Asia-Disney borders on the comical. In the
midst of an Asian economic crisis that was supposed to have led to a backlash against a
haughty US, there seems to be fierce competition for an icon of American capitalism.
And yet, despite the undoubted need to be grateful for American power, it would clearly
be much better if you had some influence on how that power was exercised.
Europeans, with the creation of a single currency, understand that getting one's own
house in order is one way to get the Americans to pay attention. Similarly, only when
Japan returns to growth can it be anything more than a supplicant at the top tables.
Europeans risk becoming more like Japan if Germany's failure to engage in structural
economic reform holds back growth in the euro-zone as a whole.
Standing up to the US and keeping it honestly committed to open multilateralism
requires Europeans and Asians being far more successful at home.
Until they spend more on defence and can deploy their own forces beyond their homes,
the US will treat them as second-class citizens.
Until their economies are as open and as successful as the American one, there will be
a natural tendency to dismiss the complaints of foreigners.
And until European or Asian culture reaches out to global markets, the Americans, sadly
, will have the field of dreams to themselves.
[The writer, the Director of Studies at the International Institute for Strategic
Studies, contributed this article to The Straits Times.]
BULLY?: But bottom line is US has more open economy
IN ECONOMIC terms, as the current WTO dispute over bananas demonstrates, the US seems
to have a default mode of "bully". But if the Europeans and Asians are honest,
they will recognise that for all its flaws, the US is a more open economy.
It is the US that has ensured that the nastiest dog in the economic crisis has not
barked -- the one with the name "protectionism" on its collar. Non-status quo
powers such as China (and perhaps Russia) might welcome a US less committed to global
order, but if all other powers are truthful, they will reluctantly accept that it is
better to have a sheriff with attitude than no sheriff at all. |