Malaysian tax misses point
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At last, the Malaysian Government has eased the controversial capital controls that
the Prime Minister, Dr Mahathir Mohamad, imposed last September. Yesterday's announcement
by the Finance Minister, Mr Daim Zainuddin, at a press conference closed to the foreign
press, comes a week after Dr Mahathir hinted at the easing during the World Economic Forum
in Davos. Making it easier for new capital to flow into Malaysia is a small step in the
right direction, but the 30 per cent tax on money leaving Malaysia still masks the
economic problems that only serious structural reforms can remedy.
The decision to ease capital controls is, of course, in accordance with Dr Mahathir's
announcement five months ago that the controls were always a short-term measure, designed
to prevent international speculators from attacking Malaysia's currency. By isolating
Malaysia's financial system from the rest of the world, he sought to revive his country's
recessed economy by cutting interest rates.
To be fair, Dr Mahathir's capital controls have not been as disastrous in the Malaysian
context as many economists and financial analysts had predicted last September. After all,
the ringgit has stabilised while interest rates have fallen. And the Malaysian stockmarket
has boomed while exports in $US terms have strengthened, which in turn has boosted foreign
reserves. All of which suggests that Malaysia is finding its feet.
Trouble is, so are Thailand and South Korea, both of which conformed to the letter and
spirit of their predominantly free market agreements with the International Monetary Fund
in 1997. Indeed, the Thai and South Korean economies, hard-hit casualties of the financial
crisis, seem to be improving at a much better rate than Malaysia's. Seoul and Bangkok,
unlike Kuala Lumpur, have not frightened away foreign investment.
Capital controls have also solidified the authoritarian power structure in Malaysia
where the fortunes of Dr Mahathir's crony capitalist mates and relatives are secure.
Another problem is that the controls have failed to boost industrial production. In a
country in which such production accounts for one-third of economic growth, this is not an
encouraging sign.
Nor is the fact that the draconian measures have not whetted the appetite of foreign
investors. In the past, foreign investors played a direct role in transferring new
technology and boosting productivity. Indeed, a common message they received when they
invested in Malaysia was that the country was more stable than most of its neighbours.
Today, however, thanks to Dr Mahathir's obsession to thumb his nose at the international
community -- not to mention the controversy over his sacking of deputy Datuk Anwar Ibrahim
last September -- such investment is no longer conceivable.
But there is still a major obstacle facing Kuala Lumpur: the process for easing the
controls. Dr Mahathir was wrong to embrace capital controls to shelter Malaysia from the
global economic turmoil five months ago, but yesterday's announcement to modify these
controls into a more flexible "exit tax" on short-term capital is also a
wrongheaded and inappropriate response to Malaysia's fiscal problems. Under the exit tax
plan, foreign investors will be allowed to withdraw their money before the year-long limit
of September 1 only if they have paid a tax on their capital (30 per cent by
March 31; 20 per cent by May 30; 10 per cent by August 31).
While the idea of an exit tax is preferable to the present policy of capital controls,
the long-term cost could still isolate Malaysia from foreign investment. Any foreign
company would still have limited incentive to put its money into a country that refuses to
recognise its fiscal vulnerability.
Dr Mahathir should change course on economic policy. Heeding the wise words of the US
Treasury Secretary, Mr Robert Rubin -- who argued last weekend that capital controls were
no substitute for serious structural market reforms -- would be a start. "Only
nations that take ownership of good policies and consistently follow them will be able to
maintain their credibility and the confidence of markets," Mr Rubin said.
It is fitting that Dr Mahathir now appears to recognise that capital controls are not a
long-term solution. But neither is his exit tax an appropriate method of dealing with
fundamental economic imbalances in Malaysia.
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